Marko TomicSystem 05 · Commercial intelligence
Revenue & Cash-Flow Intelligence
A local predictive planning application for revenue, seasonal expectations and cash-flow thinking - validated against actual subsequent net revenue at 2.1% full-year forecast variance.
Problem
Planning on intuition and spreadsheets
Revenue planning, seasonal expectations and cash-flow thinking were spread across spreadsheets and gut feel. The business needed a way to ask "what do we expect, and what happens if we're wrong?" with numbers behind it.
This system is part of the Commercial Intelligence flagship: proprietary decision infrastructure around the economics of the business.
Architecture
Mathematical forecasting, locally deployed
The application uses mathematical forecasting to support revenue planning, seasonal expectations, cash-flow thinking and scenario analysis. It runs locally with no external SaaS dependency. A working natural-language querying layer exists as an MVP - useful for asking questions of the data, but deliberately not portrayed as a production SaaS platform.
- Input
- Agent
- Output
- Human judgment
Validation
Checked against what actually happened
Forecast vs actual subsequent net revenue, full year: approximately 2.1% below actual.
Quarterly and seasonal forecasts landed approximately 6% below actual net revenue.
Forecasts were validated by comparing them with the net revenue the business subsequently generated - the only validation that matters for a planning tool.
Reflection
Why local and small was the right size
This could have been a SaaS subscription or a larger platform build. Instead it is a local application that does exactly the forecasting the business needs and nothing more - the same reasoning behind this site's plain HTML stack, explored in Complexity should be earned.
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